Industry
Summary of Operations and Key Factors Driving Changes
Industry Outlook: Construction and Construction Materials (2025–2027)
The construction investment environment during 2025–2027 is expected to benefit large public-sector contractors, enabling growth in line with the government’s investment plans. In contrast, the private-sector construction market is showing signs of a gradual recovery, resulting in revenue growth in this segment remaining at a level similar to that of recent years.
The government has introduced measures to control the quality of imported steel by requiring that hot-dip aluminum-zinc alloy-coated flat steel products containing 55% aluminum, as well as hot-dip galvanized cold-rolled flat steel products, comply with prescribed standards. These measures are expected to become effective within 2025, and are likely to result in higher import costs for such steel products.
In addition, Thai Industrial Standard (TIS) No. 107-2566, effective from 2 November 2024, revised the standard for “carbon steel pipes for general structural use” by removing the minimum size limitations for steel pipes, both in circumference and thickness. This revision is intended to enhance the quality standards of steel pipes of all sizes, thereby preventing substandard products without certification marks from easily entering the market. It also increases opportunities for construction contractors undertaking public-sector projects to utilize steel pipes of any size, as all sizes will now be covered by recognized standards (Krungsri Research, 2025).
Power Generation Industry Outlook (2025–2027)
The power generation business is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by electricity demand increasing at an average rate of 5.0–6.0% per annum. Key supporting factors include:
- the gradual recovery of the Thai economy, led by the tourism sector and the progressive recovery of the manufacturing sector;
- rising temperatures resulting from global climate change, with Thailand’s average temperature increasing to 28.1 degrees Celsius in 2023 from 27.4 degrees Celsius in 2022; and
- the growing number of chargeable electric vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs).
In parallel, the government continues to promote investment in power generation in order to support the economic recovery and facilitate the transition of the power industry toward clean energy. This is expected to encourage greater private-sector investment in renewable energy and green power plants. The revenue outlook for each operator group can be summarized as follows:
- IPP operators are expected to see continued revenue improvement, supported by (1) a recovery in electricity demand in line with economic activities, and (2) ongoing expansion plans, including natural gas-fired power plants in the northeastern and southern regions of Thailand, power generation from renewable energy and hydrogen, energy storage systems, as well as investments in renewable power plants overseas.
- SPP operators are expected to experience gradual revenue growth, with opportunities to expand investment through (1) natural gas-fired cogeneration power plants, many of which will reach the end of their contracts in 2025 and supply electricity to industrial estates, (2) SPP hybrid firm renewable power plants, and (3) power plant investments in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).
- VSPP operators are expected to record growth in both revenue and investment, driven by (1) the government’s plan to procure more than 10,000 megawatts of electricity from renewable energy sources—including solar, wind, biomass, biogas, and waste—by 2027, and (2) corporate income tax exemptions for clean energy generation projects under BOI investment promotion. Nevertheless, new market entrants may face constraints relating to insufficient feedstock supply, particularly for biomass and biogas projects (Krungsri Research, 2025).
Renewable Energy Power Generation Outlook in Thailand for 2025–2028
Electricity generation from renewable energy (RE) in Thailand is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year (YOY) in 2025 and achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% during 2026–2028. This growth is primarily driven by the increase in generation capacity in line with the planned Commercial Operation Dates (COD) of renewable energy projects, which are expected to add approximately 700–1,000 megawatts to the grid annually. Major renewable energy sources include solar power, wind energy, biomass, and municipal waste. In addition, off-grid electricity demand (IPS/SPP direct) and private Power Purchase Agreement (Private PPA) projects are expected to further support the expansion of renewable energy adoption.
The growth outlook for renewable energy is expected to remain positive through 2030, following the government’s announcement to procure an additional 3,731 megawatts of renewable electricity, primarily from solar and wind power. This is also supported by the Power Development Plan 2024 (PDP 2024), which targets increasing the share of renewable energy to more than 51% of total power generation by 2037. Under this plan, renewable energy capacity is expected to reach approximately 3,700 megawatts by 2030, with more than 31,000 megawatts gradually added during 2031–2037.
Beyond domestic growth, the continued expansion of renewable energy generation worldwide, particularly in Asia and Australia, also presents further opportunities for Thai operators to expand investments in renewable energy projects overseas.
Nevertheless, the power generation business continues to face key risks that require close monitoring, particularly the expiration of Feed-in Premium (Adder) incentives for more than 2,000 megawatts of renewable power projects scheduled to expire during 2024–2025. This may adversely affect the revenue streams of solar and wind power producers whose income structures rely on Adder-based incentives (SCB EIC, 2024).
Electric Vehicle Industry Outlook for 2026–2028
Thailand’s electric vehicle (EV) industry is expected to continue expanding during 2026–2028. New battery electric vehicle (BEV) registrations are projected to reach approximately 125,000 units per year, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8%. Key supporting factors include the development of new EV technologies with improved performance, particularly in driving range, together with the full implementation of Euro 6 emission standards in 2026, which is expected to increase the production cost and selling price of internal combustion engine vehicles. In addition, the price war in the EV market is expected to ease, helping preserve operators’ profit margins amid persistently high local compensation production costs, as economies of scale from mass production have yet to be fully realized.
However, the market still faces demand-side risks that may lead to a slowdown following the expiration of the EV 3.5 subsidy scheme. At the same time, supply is expected to accelerate as manufacturers increase domestic production to compensate for imports under the conditions of the EV 3.0 and EV 3.5 measures. These conditions may continue to intensify competition in the domestic market. For exports, annual volume is projected at around 20,000 units, supported by incentive conditions under which one exported vehicle can be counted as 1.5 units of compensatory production. Rising global demand for EVs, driven by stricter environmental regulations, is also expected to support export growth. Nevertheless, Thailand continues to face significant challenges from price competition with Chinese manufacturers seeking to release excess supply into global markets. Thailand may be at a competitive disadvantage due to its higher unit production costs, resulting from its still-limited production scale (Krungsri Research, 2025).
Steel Industry Outlook
Overall steel demand in Thailand in 2025 is expected to increase to 16.2 million tons, representing year-on-year growth of 1.7%. By product category, demand for both long steel and flat steel is projected to rise to 6.1 million tons, up 2.3%, and 10.0 million tons, up 1.4%, respectively. The main supporting factor is the continued advancement of public-sector construction projects. However, the market remains under pressure from the slowdown in new residential development projects and the continued contraction in the automotive manufacturing sector.
At present, Thai steel manufacturers have begun to improve their production processes to be more environmentally friendly and have also started compiling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions data. These efforts are intended to create opportunities to become part of the steel industry’s green supply chain and to enhance competitiveness amid the global transition toward carbon neutrality (Settrade, 2025).