Industry
Summary of Operations and Key Factors Driving Changes
Overview of the Year 2024,
The Thai economy expanded by 2.5 percent in 2024, accelerating from 2.0 percent growth in 2023. This expansion was supported by a strong recovery in private consumption and government expenditure.
Thailand's Renewable Energy Power Generation Growth Trend for 2025-2028
Electricity generation from renewable energy (RE) in Thailand is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year (YOY) in 2025 and achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% during 2026–2028. This growth is primarily driven by the increase in generation capacity in line with the planned Commercial Operation Dates (COD) of new RE projects, which are expected to contribute approximately 700–1,000 megawatts annually. Major renewable sources include solar power, wind energy, biomass, and municipal solid waste. Additionally, off-grid electricity demand (IPS/SPP direct) and private Power Purchase Agreement (Private PPA) projects further support the expansion of renewable energy usage.
The upward trajectory of renewable energy growth is projected to continue through 2030, supported by the government's recent announcement to procure an additional 3,731 megawatts of renewable electricity. Most of this will be sourced from solar and wind energy. Moreover, under the Power Development Plan 2024 (PDP 2024), the government aims to increase the share of renewable energy to over 51% of total electricity generation by 2037, which includes the target of reaching around 3,700 megawatts of RE capacity by 2030, with more than 31,000 megawatts to be gradually added between 2031 and 2037.
In addition to domestic growth, the global expansion of renewable energy—particularly in Asia and Australia—presents further investment opportunities for Thai energy companies to engage in international renewable energy ventures.
Nevertheless, the power generation business still faces key risks, especially the expiration of Feed-in Premium (Adder) incentives for more than 2,000 megawatts of renewable power plants, which are set to expire between 2024 and 2025. This may affect revenue streams for solar and wind power producers whose income structures are reliant on Adder incentives (SCBEIC, 2024).
Thailand’s Electric Vehicle Industry Outlook (2025–2027)
By 2027, Thailand is expected to achieve an annual electric vehicle (EV) production volume of approximately 500,000 units. This expansion is driven by efforts to offset imported EV volumes under the EV 3.0 scheme (with a replacement ratio of 1–1.5 times) and the EV 3.5 scheme (2–3 times replacement ratio). Meanwhile, annual new registrations for battery electric vehicles (BEV), hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) are projected to increase by an average of 85,000, 160,000, and 9,600 units, respectively.
Key supporting factors for this growth include:
- Implementation of the EV 3.5 scheme to stimulate both supply and demand;
- Ongoing development of new HEV and BEV models with enhanced performance and efficiency;
- Declining costs and unit prices of EVs, alongside increases in battery capacity;
- Enforcement of Euro 6 emission standards in 2025, which is expected to raise the price of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, thus improving EV competitiveness.
In addition, annual registrations of electric buses and electric commercial vehicles are forecast to increase to 1,100 and 2,100 units, respectively. This growth is supported by the following factors:
- Policy measures under EV 3.5, including tax incentives for enterprises purchasing electric buses or trucks for organizational use;
- Performance improvements, particularly in driving range, to meet commercial usage needs;
- Expansion of charging station infrastructure, especially in provincial areas;
- Increased deployment of electric public transportation services, covering both fixed-route buses and shuttle services in key locations.
(Source: Krungsri Research, 2025)
Thailand’s Steel Industry Outlook for 2025
Thailand’s domestic steel production in 2025 is expected to see a slight improvement, supported primarily by rising demand from the construction sector. However, the industry remains under considerable pressure due to the ongoing influx of low-cost Chinese steel that continues to capture domestic market share. Steel production volume is projected to reach approximately 5.8 million tons (+0.8% YOY), driven by construction needs. Nevertheless, cheaper imported steel remains widely used, contributing to a sustained decline in Thailand’s steel production capacity utilization, which has now dropped to below 30%—a level considered critically low.
The situation is exacerbated by the establishment of steel production facilities in Thailand by foreign firms aiming to bypass geopolitical tensions, and by the aggressive market expansion of Chinese producers and traders, further pushing the Thai steel industry into a state of crisis. In terms of pricing, steel prices in 2025 are expected to decline, in line with falling prices of raw materials and energy. This trend compels steel manufacturers to adopt cost management strategies and inventory reduction plans in order to remain responsive to volatile steel selling prices that are likely to continue downward.
Amid these challenges, Thai steel producers are beginning to adapt by greening their production processes, including the development of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reporting systems. These initiatives are aimed at positioning Thai steel producers to become part of the green supply chain, enhancing their competitive capabilities in the context of the global shift toward carbon neutrality. (Source: Settrade, 2024)